Risk Analysis

 

SVI conducts full risk analysis services for private companies engaged in foreign direct investment.  In-depth analysis of  key economic, political and security risks are considered.

As part of our risk analysis services we examine both the macro economic issues in developing countries/regions along with political factors which can influence decision making.  SVIs risk analysis team provides a comprehensive review of issues utilizing the following format.

Macro Economic Outlook

SVI examines economic activity including, real GDP growth; industrial growth; sector productivity analysis; employment trends; consumer price inflation; consumption; indicative wages; retail sales; and consumer confidence levels.

Fiscal policy – current macroeconomic strategy and implementation policies; government finance; revenue; expenditure; budget balance and tax reforms.

Exchange Rate Policy – Currency controls; influence of foreign direct investment inflows; exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.

Monetary Policy – Interest rate trends, bank lending and deposit rates; inflation, retail and consumer prices.

Foreign Direct Investment – Foreign direct investment inflows; business operating environment; short and long term debt profiles and exposure.

Balance of Payments – Merchandise Trade, exports, imports, trade balance; current account balance

Political and Security Outlook

Review of political stability and risk assessment. Assess short and long term risks to political stability and the business operating environment.

BENCHMARK – Benchmark a country’s risk profile against its regional neighbors and weigh comparative risks of doing business in a particular country.

POLITICAL and SECURITY RISK – Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business operating environment, current company operations and future plans. Within this realm SVI examines the major political parties and their strengths and weaknesses; rivalry among political parties; current policies and trends; voter attitudes. Within a security framework we analyze major trends in crime; areas where crimes are concentrated; groups or syndicates which participate in crime and the types of criminal activity they are involved in.

FOREIGN POLICY – Examine current trends in foreign relations and bi-lateral political or commerce agreements. Focus on external influences and threats to economic policy and performance, foreign trade, investment and debt.

KEY INDUSTRY SECTORS – Provide analysis and forecasts to major industries including Energy, Telecommunications, Construction, Engineering, Retail and Industry.

MARKET OVERVIEW – Size, value and structure of industry; impact of liberalization and privatization on sector performance and prospects. Friendliness of business operating environment to foreign business and investment

KEY PLAYERS – Major national and multinational companies driving the industry; company sales, market share, ownership structure and strategies.

LATEST DEVELOPMENTS – Review of latest projects, deals, privatizations, mergers and acquisitions, and implications for sector performance.

INDUSTRY FORECAST – Historic dataset and latest estimates by sub-sector, including public expenditure, production, sales, contribution to GNP, exports, imports, employment.